Perfectly put — simplicity wins. Owning the total market through VTI lets you skip the guessing, ride long-term growth, and let compounding do the heavy lifting. Smart, low-cost, and stress-free investing beats chasing trends every time.
Hey, great read as always. Your consistent focus on evidence-based, simplified investment stratgies always cuts through the noise. VTI really does feel like an optimized solution, making it less daunting for anyone starting out.
The simplicity argumet really resonates. Too many people get paralyzed trying to time the market or pick the perfect stocks when they could just own everythng and let compounding do its work. The 3,500+ stock coverage through CRSP index means you're never betting on the wrong horse, you own the whole stable.
Thanks for sharing that, Dave. I get why Hussman’s work is getting so much attention right now. When valuations are as extreme as they are right now, big declines seem uncomfortably possible.
I agree with you that the market is more fragile than people want to admit. At the same time, Hussman has been calling for massive crashes for most of a decade while markets kept compounding higher. A ~30% drawdown is always possible. A 70%+ collapse is a much bigger claim than most serious analysts are making.
The hard part for us individual investors is this: sitting in cash waiting for the perfect entry has a cost too. If the crash never comes, you miss years of returns. If it does come, you want to have dry powder, but it will still be hard to predict when the decline is over and it's time to buy. Balancing those risks is the challenge. I favor investing based on my timelines and putting money in the market each month regardless of if the market is up, down, or sideways.
How are you thinking about that tradeoff right now? Are you holding extra cash, or still investing steadily?
This article talks about how flows can move markets in the short run, but that doesn’t change the long-term fact that owning a low-cost index fund lets you grow with hundreds of real companies. And that's still the most proven strategy for building long-term wealth. If you’re a patient investor, the passive investing plan still works: stay diversified, keep costs low, keep buying, and don’t make big moves based on crash predictions.
Perfectly put — simplicity wins. Owning the total market through VTI lets you skip the guessing, ride long-term growth, and let compounding do the heavy lifting. Smart, low-cost, and stress-free investing beats chasing trends every time.
100%. Thanks for the comment Martin!
Hey, great read as always. Your consistent focus on evidence-based, simplified investment stratgies always cuts through the noise. VTI really does feel like an optimized solution, making it less daunting for anyone starting out.
Thank you! I appreciate the feedback and glad you found it helpful
Breakdown of VTI vs SPY super interesting, feels more bubble proof as well
The simplicity argumet really resonates. Too many people get paralyzed trying to time the market or pick the perfect stocks when they could just own everythng and let compounding do its work. The 3,500+ stock coverage through CRSP index means you're never betting on the wrong horse, you own the whole stable.
Absolutely. Well said!
Great stuff, subscribed!
A perennial strong choice in the sea of ETFs-the tax efficiency alone is a huge benefit.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc260104/
May see stocks on sale 30-77% soon, & every one likes a good Sale?
Thanks for sharing that, Dave. I get why Hussman’s work is getting so much attention right now. When valuations are as extreme as they are right now, big declines seem uncomfortably possible.
I agree with you that the market is more fragile than people want to admit. At the same time, Hussman has been calling for massive crashes for most of a decade while markets kept compounding higher. A ~30% drawdown is always possible. A 70%+ collapse is a much bigger claim than most serious analysts are making.
The hard part for us individual investors is this: sitting in cash waiting for the perfect entry has a cost too. If the crash never comes, you miss years of returns. If it does come, you want to have dry powder, but it will still be hard to predict when the decline is over and it's time to buy. Balancing those risks is the challenge. I favor investing based on my timelines and putting money in the market each month regardless of if the market is up, down, or sideways.
How are you thinking about that tradeoff right now? Are you holding extra cash, or still investing steadily?
I generally agree and this is how I invest but recently started to worry that if something looks too good to be true it probably is. I also read this which made a lot of sense to me (I’d be interested in your thoughts) https://open.substack.com/pub/tscsw/p/sell-your-index-funds-the-s-and-p?r=1oykkl&utm_medium=ios
This article talks about how flows can move markets in the short run, but that doesn’t change the long-term fact that owning a low-cost index fund lets you grow with hundreds of real companies. And that's still the most proven strategy for building long-term wealth. If you’re a patient investor, the passive investing plan still works: stay diversified, keep costs low, keep buying, and don’t make big moves based on crash predictions.
What if Vangard goes bust?